Should You Take Even Money in Blackjack? The Maths Explained
Stephen Tabone examines the blackjack even money decision, with worked examples covering insurance, expected value, card counting and 6:5 payouts.
Written by Stephen Tabone for GlobalCasinoGames.com • Fact-checked for mathematical accuracy • 21 October 2026
I would normally decline even money at a standard 3:2 blackjack table when following basic strategy. Taking it guarantees a profit on that hand, but keeping the normal blackjack payout usually gives a slightly higher expected return.
The offer can feel more difficult than the maths suggests. I already have blackjack, the dealer shows an Ace, and there is a chance my winning hand will become a push. Here is how I assess that decision.
What is an even money blackjack offer?
An even money blackjack offer lets me accept a guaranteed 1:1 profit on my natural blackjack against a dealer Ace, where the rules allow it.
A natural is an Ace and a ten-value card in the original two-card hand. With a £10 wager, taking even money means £10 profit, plus my original £10 stake back.
If I decline at a standard 3:2 table, I make £15 profit when the dealer has no blackjack. If the dealer also has blackjack, we push and my stake is returned.
An even money bet pays 1:1. My guide to even money bets in casino games explains how that term applies across different games.
Is blackjack even money the same as insurance?
At a standard 3:2 table, taking even money produces the same net profit as buying insurance for half my original wager when I hold a natural.
Insurance is a separate bet on the dealer having blackjack. Against an Ace, it wins if the hidden card is worth ten and pays 2:1 profit.
For a £10 main wager and £5 insurance:
| Dealer’s hand | Profit on main hand | Insurance result | Total net profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackjack | £0: push | £10 profit | £10 |
| No blackjack | £15 profit | £5 loss | £10 |
The combined profit is £10 either way. The even-money offer settles that result directly, without requiring a separate insurance wager.
Why does basic strategy usually say to decline even money?
Declining usually has the higher expected value because the dealer’s chance of blackjack is below the point where insurance becomes worthwhile.
Consider a six-deck example. I account for just three known cards: my Ace, my ten-value card and the dealer’s Ace. No other exposed cards enter this calculation.
Six decks contain 312 cards, including 96 ten-value cards. After those three known cards:
Unseen cards = 309.
Ten-value cards remaining = 95.
Probability of dealer blackjack = 95 / 309 = approximately 30.74%.
Probability of no dealer blackjack = 214 / 309 = approximately 69.26%.
For my £10 natural at 3:2:
Expected profit from declining = £15 × 214 / 309 = approximately £10.39.
Guaranteed profit from accepting = £10.
I would decline because the expected profit is about 39p higher. That is an average over comparable decisions, rather than an extra payment I receive on this hand.
Can I lose my original stake if I decline?
Under these standard natural-blackjack rules, no. My natural either wins or pushes against the dealer’s blackjack.
That matters: accepting even money protects a certain amount of profit. My original stake is already safe under the stated rules.
How much does taking even money cost over repeated offers?
In the six-deck example, accepting gives up about 39p of expected profit for each £10 qualifying wager.
Using the unrounded figures:
Difference per offer = £10.3883495 − £10 = £0.3883495.
Across 100 comparable offers = approximately £38.83.
With £25 wagers, the difference becomes about 97p per offer, or £97.09 across 100 comparable offers.
These figures apply to occasions when I have a natural against a dealer Ace under the stated card assumptions. They do not describe 100 ordinary blackjack hands or predict my actual results.
I would also keep this calculation separate from the house edge of the whole game. It measures the value of this particular decision.
Can card counting make taking even money correct?
Yes. On a standard 3:2 table, accepting has higher expected value if the probability of dealer blackjack exceeds one-third.
Let p be that probability. For each £1 originally wagered:
Expected profit from declining = 1.5 × (1 − p).
Profit from accepting = 1.
At the break-even point:
1.5 × (1 − p) = 1.
p = 1/3, or 33.33% recurring.
Below one-third, I favour declining. Above it, accepting has the higher expectation. At exactly one-third, the expected profits match.
A sufficiently ten-rich remaining shoe can change the decision. That requires useful information about card composition; a dealer’s recent winning streak does not establish it.
My blackjack basic strategy guide explains the distinction between ordinary basic strategy and card counting.
Was declining a mistake if the dealer then shows blackjack?
No. A push does not prove that declining was the wrong decision with the information available beforehand.
In the six-deck example, I expect that disappointing outcome about 30.74% of the time. It is already included in the calculation.
I judge the decision before the hidden card appears. Otherwise, every unlucky result would become a reason to abandon a sound calculation.
Does even money work differently at a 6:5 blackjack table?
Yes. The usual equivalence between even money and half-stake insurance depends on the 3:2 blackjack payout.
On a £10 wager, a winning 6:5 natural produces £12 profit. Adding £5 insurance gives:
Dealer has blackjack: £0 main-hand profit + £10 insurance profit = £10.
Dealer has no blackjack: £12 main-hand profit − £5 insurance loss = £7.
That insurance arrangement does not guarantee £10.
If a table genuinely offered a guaranteed £10 profit instead, I would assess that offer separately. Under the same six-deck assumptions, declining at 6:5 has an expected profit of about £8.31, so the genuine £10 offer would be better. The usual even-money option may be unavailable at a 6:5 table; I check the rules.
Should I take even money in online blackjack?
My answer depends on the payout and insurance terms, just as it does in a physical casino. With equivalent rules and card information, the maths is the same.
If an online game reshuffles every round, previous rounds do not provide a continuing shoe count.
For ordinary basic-strategy play at 3:2, I would decline. A player can prefer the certainty of taking even money, but I would recognise the expected value surrendered. That guaranteed profit settles one hand; it cannot guarantee a profitable session.
